Anchoring: the first number pulls our judgement — Psychology, 11–13 years
A first number can quietly become a starting point for later estimates, even when it is not useful evidence.
The first number sticks
When we need to guess or decide, the first number we hear can act like an anchor. Later thoughts often move away from it, but not as far as they would have without it. The anchor may be useful, such as a known price, or completely random.
Why our minds use anchors
Many decisions have no exact answer, and working everything out takes time. A first number gives the mind a quick place to begin, so it can make a rough estimate with less effort. The problem is that a starting point can feel like evidence, even when it was chosen for no good reason.
A price estimate
A friend asks whether a jacket costs more or less than €100. You then guess its price, although you have not seen it: first €90, then €70. Now another friend hears €400 and guesses €250. Both guesses may be pulled by the first number, even though neither €100 nor €400 tells us the jacket’s true price.
The trap: “I chose it freely”
It is easy to think that an estimate is entirely our own because we did the final thinking. That feels reasonable: the first number did not force us to answer. Yet it may still have nudged the range we considered. Ask yourself for an estimate before hearing a suggested number, or check reliable facts first.
Where it appears
Anchoring appears when comparing prices, guessing how long a task will take, or estimating how many people are in a crowd. A shop’s “was €80, now €35” display can make €35 feel cheap because €80 came first. Compare with a few independent prices instead of trusting the first figure alone.
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