Make a sensible guess from data — Data, 4–6
Past observations can help us make a careful guess about what may happen next. Data gives a clue, not a guarantee, because the next situation can be different.
Use yesterday to guess tomorrow
When we notice what happened several times, we can use it to make a sensible guess about what may happen next. For example, if the sky was cloudy every afternoon this week, we might guess it could be cloudy tomorrow. A prediction is a guess supported by what we have noticed.
Why make a prediction?
A prediction helps when we must prepare before we know exactly what will happen. People first used repeated observations to decide when to plant crops, travel or bring shelter. Looking at data is better than choosing a guess from nowhere, but it cannot remove all surprise.
Example: the playground
For four days, we check the playground at lunchtime: open, open, wet, open. It was open on 3 of the 4 days. On the fifth day, we predict “probably open”, so we bring our ball. Then we check what really happened and add the new observation.
The tempting mistake
It is tempting to think that a prediction must come true, especially when the pattern has looked the same several times. But data describes the past, while a prediction talks about the future. Weather, people and objects can change, so a careful prediction can still be wrong.
Where it is useful
We use small predictions when deciding whether to take a coat, whether fruit is ready to eat, or when a bus may arrive. Farmers, scientists and sports teams also study earlier data before planning. Their predictions improve with useful observations, but they still check what happens next.
Keep exploring
Other languages
Loading MyLeoNes™…