Knowing, believing and guessing — Philosophy, 7–10 years
Learn to tell apart what you know, what you believe and what you are only guessing. This helps you be honest about how strong your ideas really are.
Three levels of confidence
Sometimes you have checked something and know it, such as knowing that ice melts in a warm room. Sometimes you accept an idea because it seems likely, but you could be wrong. Sometimes you simply guess because you do not have enough information.
Why make the difference?
People often speak as if every thought were a fact. That can spread rumours, cause arguments or lead to unsafe choices. Philosophers began asking how we can tell when an idea has enough support to count as knowledge, rather than a belief or a guess.
A wet pavement
Step 1: You see that the pavement is wet. Step 2: You say it may have rained, so that is a reasonable belief, not yet certain knowledge. Step 3: You check the weather record and find 12 mm of rain fell during the night. Now your belief has strong evidence, while a claim about who opened the tap would still be a guess.
Feeling sure is not proof
A common mistake is to treat confidence as evidence: if an idea feels obvious, it must be true. This is understandable because quick guesses often help us act. But memory can be wrong and appearances can mislead, so ask what you checked and what could show that you are mistaken.
Before sharing a message
When a message says that a strange event happened, separate what you know from what you suspect. Look for the original source, check the date and compare it with another reliable source. Saying I do not know yet is more useful than passing on a guess as if it were a fact.
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