The anchoring effect — Psychology, 14–17 years
A first number or idea can pull later estimates towards it, even when it should not matter much. Knowing this makes it easier to pause before accepting a price, estimate or opinion as a natural starting point.
Idea
An anchor is an opening number or suggestion that quietly influences what comes next. When estimating, negotiating or choosing, people often adjust away from that first point, but not far enough. The anchor feels like useful information, even when it was chosen randomly or has little connection to the real answer.
Why it matters
The problem is that many decisions have no immediate correct answer, so the mind needs a starting point. Researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky studied how arbitrary starting values could shift estimates, helping establish anchoring as a bias in judgement. The finding matters because a first offer, label or statistic can shape a decision before careful comparison begins.
Worked example
A coat is first shown with a price of €200, then reduced by 30%. Step 1: calculate the discount: 30% of €200 is €60. Step 2: subtract it: €200 − €60 = €140. Step 3: ask whether €140 is good value without staring at €200; compare the coat with similar coats and its quality. The original price may pull judgement upwards even if it was inflated.
Common trap
The common mistake is to assume that rejecting the first number removes its influence. It often does not: you may move away from it while still staying too close. This is reasonable because the first number is sometimes genuinely useful, such as a known market price. The answer is to create an independent estimate before hearing the proposed number.
Outside school
Anchors appear in shopping, salary discussions, house prices, fundraising targets and online subscription plans. A “was €90, now €45” label may make €45 feel cheap before you check quality or alternatives. When a number matters, write your own reasonable range first, then compare the offer with evidence rather than with the first figure you saw.
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